All eyes on poll turnout

Hyderabad, April. 15: As the stage is set for the first phase elections for the 154 Assembly and 22 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the Congress and the Telugu Desam-led Mahakutami are keenly monitoring the poll percentage.

The earlier elections indicate that any increase in the poll percentage had actually affected the ruling parties adversely whereas subdued or reduced poll turnout helped the ruling party return to power. Except in 1994, the state has experienced a change of guard whenever there was a spurt in polling turnout. While at the Centre, the 1967 elections saw a massive increase in poll percentage from 55.4 to 61.3 resulting in the defeat of the old Congress and the emergence of the Indian National Congress. The same scenario repeated in 1977 when the Congress was defeated and Janata Party came to power. This was evident with the sharp rise in poll turnout from 55.3 to 60.4 per cent. The 1985 elections, there was no major change in voting percentage in the state. However, in 1989, the poll turnout rose by over three per cent resulting in fall of the TD government. Even in 2004, the sequence of events repeated with more than three per cent rise in vote per cent resulting in the Congress sweeping the polls unseating Mr Naidu.

“This trend need not be the same always. If you take the 1998 general elections for Lok Sabha, where the rise in polling was more than five per cent, it did not result in any major change in strength of ruling political parties. That pattern followed in 2004 also, where the poll percentage was down by 1.8 per cent. The ruling NDA was defeated that year,” observed Mr Yogendra Yadav, a noted analyst of elections and senior fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Studies. However, in the state, the theory of poll percentage has more or less worked. Will it repeat this time? “That depends on the issues. The increase in poll percentage give us an indication that emotional issues are gaining momentum. People would not come to polling booths to appreciate a government. They will rush to express their unhappiness,” said Mr C. Narasimha Rao, political analyst.